Bears:
Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez
[Hanie seems to be, surprising, a decent backup. He's one of the worst QBs in the new Madden. He should at least be serviceable.]
Bengals:
Carson Palmer, J.T. O'Sullivan, Jordan Palmer
Bills:
Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzgerald, Matt Baker, Gibran Hamdan
[Edwards isn't showing much improvement, but he's sadly their best option]
Broncos:
Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, Tom Brandstater, Ingle Martin
Browns:
Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Brett Ratliff, Richard Bartel
[I'm disappointed in Ratliff's preseason, I was hoping he'd come out of no where and take the #1 spot Bartel may take Ratliff's spot.]
Buccaneers:
Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson
Cardinals:
Kurt Warner, Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre, Tyler Palko
[Leinart played like Warner last week--almost 400 yards in one half, 3 TDs, 1 INT and some fumbles.]
Chargers:
Philip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst
Chiefs:
Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Brodie Croyle, Matt Gutierrez
Colts:
Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter
Cowboys:
Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee, Rudy Carpenter
Dolphins:
Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White
Eagles:
Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, A.J. Feeley, Michael Vick
[Feeley has had an amazing preseason. I think they'll keep 4QBs. Once Vick is allowed to play, I think Feeley, or Kolb, will move to the inactive list so Vick can play in special situation.]
Falcons:
Matt Ryan, D.J. Shockley, John Parker Wilson
[Wilson may become 2nd string]
49ers:
Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard, Nate Davis
[I'd gamble and go with either Huard or Davis. Huard would minimize mistakes, but also wouldn't throw TDs. Davis is a highly talented project player who seems ahead of schedule in the preseason.]
Giants:
Eli Manning, David Carr, Rhett Bomar, Andre Woodson
[Surprising good group. Manning is a top 10 starter, Carr a top 10 backup, Bomar, a top 10 3rd stringer.]
Jaguars:
David Garrard, Todd Bouman
Jets:
Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge, Chris Pizzotti
[I think Ainge should get to play all of the last preseason game to see if he's a better option than Clemens at #2.]
Lions:
Daunte Culpepper, Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton
[Stanton has had an amazing preseason]
Packers:
Aaron Rodgers, Brian Brohm, Matt Flynn
[Rodgers, this preseason, is playing like Tom Brady's regular season in 2007. Did Brohm finally surpass Flynn? Why isn't Flynn playing?]
Panthers:
Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Matt Moore, Hunter Cantwell
Patriots:
Tom Brady, Andrew Walter, Brian Hoyer
Raiders:
JaMarcus Russell, Jeff Garcia, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski
[someone will be cut and star in the UFL]
Rams:
Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null
[The rookie may get to play at some point.]
Ravens:
Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck, Cleo Lemon, Drew Willy
[Troy Smith is a great backup to have. He's sort of like a Frank Reich, or Jason Garrett, that can run. You never want him to start. Just finish games in an emergency.]
Redskins:
Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel
[Brennan might get cut. What if Daniel worked himself to #1, doesn't seem impossible.]
Saints:
Drew Brees, Mark Brunell, Joey Harrington
[Brunell may fall to 3rd string if he plays like he did in week 3 in week 4.]
Seahawks:
Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Mike Teel, Jeff Rowe
Steelers:
Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, Mike Reilly
[Big Ben needs to be careful. He doesn't put up pretty numbers, but he's the most important person on the offense.]
Texans:
Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Alex Brink
Titans:
Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Patrick Ramsey
Vikings:
Brett Favre, Sage Rosenfels, Tavaris Jackson, John David Booty
[After Jackson's last game, who do you let go of?]
Free Agents:
Kevin O'Connell
[just cut by the Patriots]
Adam DiMichele
[cut by Eagles, despite a decent preseason showing, 64% 130 yrds 1TD 95 rating]
Drew Henson
J.P. Losman
Anthony Wright
Marques Tuiasosopo
Brooks Bollinger
Gus Frerotte
Jamie Martin
Brock Berlin
Brad Johnson
Quinn Gray
[overall, very weak free agent pool. Look for trades to occur if someone needs a QB. Gray and O'Connell should be picked up by someone.]
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Aaron Rodgers through week 3 of the preseason
If he plays like this all year he'll surpass even the best Brett Favre season.
I'm not much of a fan of him--although I was when he was drafted--but I think he'll throw 33 TDs 12 INTs and about 4,000 yards for a plus 100 rating.
I'm not much of a fan of him--although I was when he was drafted--but I think he'll throw 33 TDs 12 INTs and about 4,000 yards for a plus 100 rating.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Welcome to the NFLquarteback blog!
Greetings,
My purpose for this blog is mostly aimless. I'm merely a knowledgeable football fan with a direct interest in the quarterback position.
Football dynasties have risen and fallen due to the ability, or inability, of quarterbacks throughout the history of professional football. The drafting of a rookie quarterback in the first round usually causes the most anticipation going into the regular season. Will he be a Manning, or a Leaf? Will this kid be the face of our franchise, or its undoing shame? Did we pick the best of all possible options? And when will he be ready?
Then of course, there are the unknown quarterbacks who exceed expectations. The caliber of the exceeding, of course, differs. The Redskins once drafted Heath Shuler, now a politician, at the beginning of a draft and later drafted Gus Frerotte. Shuler was soon displaced by Frerotte, and soon out of the league. For all of Frerotte's faults at quarterback, he exceeded the ability of a 7th round draft pick, and defeated a 1st rounder. Perhaps Shuler would have benefited for sitting on the bench a few years and returned to the field as an enlightened quarterback.
My definition of an "enlightened quarterback" is one who either sits for a long time, or one who starts off badly, sits for awhile, and then emerges as something unpredictable. The best example off the top of my head is Rich Gannon. His first season was 1987 with the Vikings. He did not really play until 1990 through 1992. At that point, he was not a good quarterback. At this point, he's mainly on the bench. He emerges, "enlightened", by 1998 and goes on to have five phenomenal years before injuries end his career. There are others.
However, many quarterbacks are thrown into the fire without having their "padawan" stage of their career. They're knighted, given their armor and their sword, and sent into battle. They did not anscend through the Squire, Page, Knight process of learning the craft.
In this draft, we have three first rounders: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. Sanchez will probably be "knighted" immediately. Stafford will probably resemble what I'll call the "page" stage, he will be anticipated to start at some point this season, and will be slowly worked into the games. Freeman could potentially sit out almost all year as a "squire". As you can see I've read too much history, and literature, but anyway. It's interesting to think about.
Since the Great Quarterback Class of 1983, the following QBs have been full time starters during their rookie seasons (that is played all 16 games, barring injury):
1984 - Warren Moon, Oilers (he doesn't count because he was in the CFL since 1978)
1989 - Troy Aikman, Cowboys (injured for 5 games), 9 Tds 18 Ints, 0-11 record.
1993 - Rick Mirer, Seahawks, 12 Tds 17 Ints, 6-10 record.
1998 - Peyton Manning, Colts, 26 Tds 28 Ints, 3-13 record.
2001 - Chris Weinke, Panthers, (29 year old rookie, out one game) 11 Tds 19 Ints, 1-14 record.
2002 - David Carr, Texans, 9 Tds 15 Ints, 4-12 record.
2008 - Matt Ryan, Falcons, 16 Tds 11 Ints, 11-5 record.
2008 - Joe Flacco, Ravens, 14 Tds 11 Ints, 11-5 record.
What can I discern from this? Not counting Warren Moon, this is what I notice: The immediate full-time starting of a QB throughout an entire rookie season, barring injury, is an exceptional rare thing. If we were going into the 2008 season, we would say that is never a successful thing to impliment (although Aikman and Manning ended up eventually emerging as legends). Then what happpened in 2008? Was it just due for a rookie to have a winning season, and so, was it coincidental that this occured with two QBs having winning records in their first season? Who knows. But regardless, it is rare. Since 1983, Ryan and Flacco are the only winning rookies. Since 1983, Aikman and Manning are the only rookies on this list (too soon for Ryan and Flacco) to have successful careers. If Ryan, and/or, Flacco make the Hall, then it appears to be approximately a 10 year difference between star QBs coming out of the full-time-rookie-starter crop of QBs. Will Sanchez, and possibly Stafford, follow the rule, or show that the rookie starter situation is entirely different now than it was in the past?
Anyway, that's my first post. More will follow, especially if I'm urged to do so.
My purpose for this blog is mostly aimless. I'm merely a knowledgeable football fan with a direct interest in the quarterback position.
Football dynasties have risen and fallen due to the ability, or inability, of quarterbacks throughout the history of professional football. The drafting of a rookie quarterback in the first round usually causes the most anticipation going into the regular season. Will he be a Manning, or a Leaf? Will this kid be the face of our franchise, or its undoing shame? Did we pick the best of all possible options? And when will he be ready?
Then of course, there are the unknown quarterbacks who exceed expectations. The caliber of the exceeding, of course, differs. The Redskins once drafted Heath Shuler, now a politician, at the beginning of a draft and later drafted Gus Frerotte. Shuler was soon displaced by Frerotte, and soon out of the league. For all of Frerotte's faults at quarterback, he exceeded the ability of a 7th round draft pick, and defeated a 1st rounder. Perhaps Shuler would have benefited for sitting on the bench a few years and returned to the field as an enlightened quarterback.
My definition of an "enlightened quarterback" is one who either sits for a long time, or one who starts off badly, sits for awhile, and then emerges as something unpredictable. The best example off the top of my head is Rich Gannon. His first season was 1987 with the Vikings. He did not really play until 1990 through 1992. At that point, he was not a good quarterback. At this point, he's mainly on the bench. He emerges, "enlightened", by 1998 and goes on to have five phenomenal years before injuries end his career. There are others.
However, many quarterbacks are thrown into the fire without having their "padawan" stage of their career. They're knighted, given their armor and their sword, and sent into battle. They did not anscend through the Squire, Page, Knight process of learning the craft.
In this draft, we have three first rounders: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. Sanchez will probably be "knighted" immediately. Stafford will probably resemble what I'll call the "page" stage, he will be anticipated to start at some point this season, and will be slowly worked into the games. Freeman could potentially sit out almost all year as a "squire". As you can see I've read too much history, and literature, but anyway. It's interesting to think about.
Since the Great Quarterback Class of 1983, the following QBs have been full time starters during their rookie seasons (that is played all 16 games, barring injury):
1984 - Warren Moon, Oilers (he doesn't count because he was in the CFL since 1978)
1989 - Troy Aikman, Cowboys (injured for 5 games), 9 Tds 18 Ints, 0-11 record.
1993 - Rick Mirer, Seahawks, 12 Tds 17 Ints, 6-10 record.
1998 - Peyton Manning, Colts, 26 Tds 28 Ints, 3-13 record.
2001 - Chris Weinke, Panthers, (29 year old rookie, out one game) 11 Tds 19 Ints, 1-14 record.
2002 - David Carr, Texans, 9 Tds 15 Ints, 4-12 record.
2008 - Matt Ryan, Falcons, 16 Tds 11 Ints, 11-5 record.
2008 - Joe Flacco, Ravens, 14 Tds 11 Ints, 11-5 record.
What can I discern from this? Not counting Warren Moon, this is what I notice: The immediate full-time starting of a QB throughout an entire rookie season, barring injury, is an exceptional rare thing. If we were going into the 2008 season, we would say that is never a successful thing to impliment (although Aikman and Manning ended up eventually emerging as legends). Then what happpened in 2008? Was it just due for a rookie to have a winning season, and so, was it coincidental that this occured with two QBs having winning records in their first season? Who knows. But regardless, it is rare. Since 1983, Ryan and Flacco are the only winning rookies. Since 1983, Aikman and Manning are the only rookies on this list (too soon for Ryan and Flacco) to have successful careers. If Ryan, and/or, Flacco make the Hall, then it appears to be approximately a 10 year difference between star QBs coming out of the full-time-rookie-starter crop of QBs. Will Sanchez, and possibly Stafford, follow the rule, or show that the rookie starter situation is entirely different now than it was in the past?
Anyway, that's my first post. More will follow, especially if I'm urged to do so.
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